Note: The following analysis is based on data from 338Canada.com as of October 15, 2019.
- Both the Conservatives and the Liberals could either lose or gain significant ground in Ontario. So many races are too close to call that the outcome in Ontario could help either party to form the next government. The Liberals held 76 seats in Ontario when the writ was dropped and are projected to win between 32 and 92 seats. The Conservatives held 33 seats in Ontario and are projected to win between 20 and 73 seats. Conservatives have been trending up in Ontario over the past week.
- The Liberals are projected to lose up to 5 seats in OC member ridings: Kitchener-South-Hespeler, Peterborough-Kawartha, Richmond Hill, Oakville-North-Burlington, St Catharines.
- At the onset of the election, we had identified 6 ridings to watch for OC members in Ontario: Kitchener-South-Hespeler (Toss up Liberal/Conservative – possible Liberal loss), Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound (Conservative hold), Hamilton-Centre (NDP hold ), Barrie-Springwater-Oro Medonte (Conservative hold), Richmond Hill (Toss up Liberal/Conservative – possible Liberal loss), Oakville-North-Burlington (Toss up Liberal/Conservative – possible Liberal loss).
- Since the televised debates, NDP fortunes have been on the upswing in various regions throughout the country, including Ontario, where the party has now pulled into several tight races with Liberal incumbents.
- The NDP’s fortunes have improved somewhat since the televised debates, but the party still stands to lose significant ground in Québec. At the time the writ dropped, the NDP held 14 seats in Québec. As of now, they project to win 2 to 5 seats.
- The NDP are projected to lose up to 5 seats in OC member ridings: Laurier-Sainte Marie, Hochelaga, Rimouski-Neigette-Témiscouatta-Les Basques, Trois rivières, Sherbrooke.
- The Liberals could lose the most ground in Québec. At the time the writ was dropped, the Liberals held 40 seats in Québec. As of now, they project to win 18 to 44 seats.
- In several ridings where OC members are based, the races between Liberals and the Bloc Québécois are too close to call.
- The Bloc Québécois stands to be the biggest winner. At the time the writ was dropped, the Bloc held 10 seats. As of now, they project to win between 21 and 47 seats. The number of projected wins for the Bloc has nearly doubled since the televised debates.
- At the onset of the election, we had identified 7 ridings to watch for OC members in Québec: Laurier-Sainte Marie (Toss up Liberal/Bloc – NDP loss), Hochelaga (Leaning Bloc – NDP loss), Outremont (Liberal Hold), Ville Marie-Sud Ouest-Île des soeurs (Liberal Hold), Longueil-Charles Lemoyne (Toss up Liberal/Bloc – possible Liberal loss), Québec (Toss up Liberal/Bloc – possible Liberal loss), Chicoutimi-Le Fjord (Toss up Bloc/Conservative – possible Conservative loss).